Statistics in Game Shows
I don’t know why, but I have a fascination with statistics and numbers. A few weeks back I was on a JetBlue flight to New York and ended up watching Deal or No Deal on their free, in-flight DirecTV service. I never watched the game before because it seemed kind of irritating, and I can’t stand Howie Mandel. However, after three mind-numbing hours of boredom in-flight, I succumbed to America’s current game show of the week.
I was struggling with the math behind the game. What was the bankers’ offer based on? Are the dollar amounts set up fairly, visually speaking, such that you can get an accurate picture of whether or not you’re receiving a good offer? And, what is a ‘good’ offer?
After a whopping 30 seconds of search on Google, I found a great explanation of the math behind the game. Basically, from a probability perspective, if you receive an offer greater than the arithmetical mean of the remaining cases, you should take the deal. But don’t take my word for it…
At the beginning of Deal or No Deal, the contestant is presented with 26 suitcases that contain the amounts shown in the previous image, and the expected value can be calculated from the following equation:
If no cases have been opened, then this value computes to approximately $131,477.54.
The discussion is fascinating, you should read it.
Oh, and if you want to play the game online, go here.
